SPORTS ADVISORS
(24) South Florida (6-2, 2-5 ATS) at Cincinnati (5-2, 2-4 ATS)
Two Big East teams coming off losses hook up when South Florida travels to Nippert Stadium for a nationally televised meeting with Cincinnati.
The Bulls dropped 10 spots in the rankings after their 24-20 loss to Louisville as a four-point road chalk Saturday, and they’ve now alternated ATS wins and losses over the past five games. QB Matt Grothe (30 of 40, 344 yards) put South Florida up 20-17 early in the fourth quarter with his second TD pass, but Louisville responded with the winning TD two minutes later. Grothe threw two INTs, including one late in the game that allowed the Cardinals to run out the clock.
The Bearcats got pounded 40-16 at Connecticut laying three points Saturday, snapping a four-game SU winning streak and giving Cincy its second straight ATS defeat. Cincinnati had an eye-popping six turnovers – losing three of six fumbles and tossing three INTs – with the last of those picks going the other way for a touchdown. The Bearcats rushed for just 30 yards, were outgained 349-289 overall and lost the time-of-possession battle by more than eight minutes.
Cincinnati coach Brian Kelly, who has been dealing with injuries at quarterback all season, is uncertain who will go under center tonight. Junior Tony Pike, who took over for incumbent starter Dustin Grutza (season-ending leg injury) in September, returned from a broken left forearm last week against UConn and went 10-for-27 for 136 yards, one TD and one INT, but had to leave the game after a half because of the injury. If Pike is unable to play tonight, redshirt freshman Chazz Anderson (61.3 percent completion rate, 520 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs) will likely make his third start of the season for an offense that puts up 27 points and 384 total yards per game.
South Florida has no issues at quarterback, as Grothe has been solid most of the season, completing 66.8 percent of his throws for 1,896 yards with 14 TDs and five INTs. He leads an offense that averages 33.5 points and 425.8 total yards per game.
Cincinnati is on a 4-0 ATS run (3-1 SU) in this rivalry, winning 38-33 last year at South Florida as a 4½-point pup as the Bulls committed an astounding eight turnovers and gave up all 38 points in the first half. Two years ago, the Bearcats claimed a 23-6 home win as a one-point favorite.
The Bulls are in a 2-6 ATS slide overall and are burdened by additional pointspread skids of 0-8 against winning teams and 3-6 as a road chalk. The Bearcats are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games, but the pointspread trends turn positive from there, including 10-3 at home, 6-1-1 after a SU loss, 4-1 on Thursday and 10-4-1 against winning teams.
The over for South Florida is on runs of 11-4-1 overall and 7-3 against winning teams, but the under for Cincinnati is on stretches of 5-1 at home, 6-0 on Thursday and 9-1-1 in October.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI
NBA
Charlotte (0-0, 0-0) at Cleveland (0-1, 1-0 ATS)
The Cavaliers return to Quicken Loans Arena for their home opener following Tuesday’s 90-85 loss at Boston, though they covered as a six-point underdog. LeBron James (22 points) had a decent game, but he missed a couple of key free throws in the final minute, and Cleveland had just three players score in double figures, while Boston had five. The Cavs are now on a 6-0 ATS run dating to last season’s run to the Eastern Conference semifinals.
The Bobcats, playing their season opener, are coming off a 32-50 campaign last year (36-43-3 ATS) which included finishing the season on a 7-5 SU run just to break the 30-win barrier. Charlotte capped 2007-08 in a 3-6 ATS slump.
Cleveland has won seven of the last 10 meetings against the Bobcats, including the last three in a row. However, Charlotte is 5-3 ATS in the last eight battles, though the two teams split the cash in last season’s four contests, with the road team covering each time. The Bobcats are 5-1 ATS on their last six trips to Cleveland, and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes.
Along with the Cavaliers’ current 6-0 ATS run (all against Eastern Conference foes), they are on additional pointspread streaks of 5-0 when playing on one day’s rest and 5-1 at Quicken Loans Arena. Overall at home last year, Cleveland was 32-15 SU, but just 20-27 ATS.
The Bobcats finished last season in ATS ruts of 3-7 against the East and 2-6-1 against teams with a losing record, and they went 11-30 SU (17-22-2 ATS) as a visitor.
The under for Cleveland is on a bevy of tears, including 14-6 overall, 20-7 at home and 13-6 playing on one day’s rest. The under is also 9-3 in Charlotte’s last 12 roadies. However, the over is on a 4-1 overall run for the ‘Cats, and the total has gone high in four of the last five meetings between these two teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
Houston (1-0, 0-1 ATS) at Dallas (0-0, 0-0 ATS
The Mavericks and new coach Rick Carlisle tip off their season at American Airlines Center, hoping to improve on last year’s 52-35 record (38-45-4 ATS). Dallas suffered a second straight first-round playoff exist, getting eliminated by New Orleans in six games, which led to the ouster of coach Avery Johnson. The Mavs ended last season in a 3-7 ATS slide (playoffs included), and while they had one of the league’s best home records at 35-8 (playoffs included), they went just 18-21-4 ATS in their building.
The Rockets opened their season last night at home against Memphis and led by just a single point going into the fourth quarter before breaking things open on the way to an 82-71 victory. However, Houston came up just short as a 12½-point favorite. The Rockies did finish last year on a spread-covering flourish, and despite last night’s non-cover, the team is still 28-14-1 ATS in its last 43 games (playoffs included).
In four head-to-head meetings against Houston last year, Dallas went 3-1 SU and ATS (1-1 SU and ATS at home), and the Mavs are 8-2 SU and ATS in the last 10 clashes in this rivalry. Dallas is 6-1 ATS in the last seven battles overall and 4-1 ATS in the last five at American Airlines Center, but the road team has cashed in four of the last five.
The Mavericks are 39-18-1 ATS in their last 58 games against Southwest Division foes, but they are on ATS skids of 3-7 at home and 3-7 against the Western Conference. The Rockets, meanwhile, are on ATS runs of 24-8-3 in Thursday contests, 5-3 inside the division and 7-3 in the second night of back-to-back games. Finally, the Rockets last season went 25-19 SU and 25-18-1 ATS on the highway.
Despite last night’s non-cover against Memphis, the SU winner is still 15-2 ATS in Houston’s last 17 games overall and 18-1 ATS in its last 19 on the highway.
The under cashed in five of Dallas’ last six home games last season, and the under for Houston is on a 9-3 overall run, with last night’s win over the Grizzlies staying well below the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS and UNDER
New Orleans (1-0, 0-1 ATS) at Phoenix (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Hornets, coming off a surprising season in which they reached the Western Conference semifinals, opened the 2008-09 campaign with Wednesday’s 108-103 victory at Golden State, though they came up short as a seven-point road chalk. Going back to last year’s seven-game playoff series loss to San Antonio, New Orleans is mired in a 1-5 ATS slump.
The Suns, who were ousted by the Spurs in the first round of last season’s playoffs, got a small measure of revenge in last night’s season opener, winning 103-98 in San Antonio as a one-point road underdog. Amare Stoudemire (22 points), Steve Nash (13) and Shaquille O’Neal (15 points) all scored in double figures for Phoenix, with Nash chipping in a game-high 13 assists and O’Neal contributing a game-high 13 rebounds. The Suns are on a 16-5 roll in regular-season action (13-7-1 ATS), including 9-1 at home (8-2 ATS).
New Orleans went 4-0 SU and ATS in four clashes with Phoenix last season, winning and covering the first three games in the underdog role. The Hornets are on additional ATS runs in this rivalry of 6-0 overall and 9-2-1 in Phoenix, and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six contests.
The Hornets are a sterling 26-7-2 ATS in their last 35 games when playing on no rest and 22-7 ATS in their last 29 against the Pacific Division, but they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven roadies. The Suns ended last season in a 1-4-1 ATS slump when playing on no rest, but in addition to their 8-2 ATS run at the U.S. Airways Center, they’re 17-6-2 in their last 25 against Western Conference opponents.
The under for Charlotte is on streaks of 6-3-1 overall, 4-2 against the Pacific Division, 6-3-1 in the West and 5-3 on the highway, and in this rivalry, the under is on tears of 9-3 overall and 9-3 in Phoenix.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and UNDER
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